<p class="ql-block">英文原文</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">From Kaifeng to New York, glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China. </p><p class="ql-block">Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans—as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "Glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."</p><p class="ql-block">As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.</p><p class="ql-block">My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Chang'an, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.</p><p class="ql-block">Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000. </p><p class="ql-block">An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.</p><p class="ql-block">Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.</p><p class="ql-block">As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000. But many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader. </p><p class="ql-block">"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it." </p><p class="ql-block">She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.</p><p class="ql-block">So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng? </p><p class="ql-block">One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years. </p><p class="ql-block">A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world—and that was the beginning of the end. </p><p class="ql-block">I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.</p><p class="ql-block">Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name—and yet his progeny were different. "</p><p class="ql-block">Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.</p><p class="ql-block">Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.</p> <p class="ql-block">中文譯文</p><p class="ql-block"> 從開封到紐約——輝煌如過眼云煙</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">千禧年伊始，紐約成為全球最重要的城市，堪稱地球的“非官方首都”。但在紐約人自滿之前，或許值得看看中國中部破敗的開封。</p><p class="ql-block">開封，這座坐落于泥沙淤積的黃河之畔的古城，在公元1000年時是無可爭議的世界中心。若你從未聽聞它的名字，這對美國人而言不啻為一記警鐘——正如本文標題所言：“輝煌如過眼云煙”。</p><p class="ql-block">作為世界唯一的超級大國，美國如今或許覺得全球主導地位是理所當然。但縱觀歷史，霸權的轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝令人矚目，尤其是對單個城市而言。</p><p class="ql-block">我認為公元前2000年前后的世界第一城是伊拉克的烏爾；公元前1500年可能是埃及的底比斯；公元前1000年沒有絕對霸主，但黎巴嫩的西頓可算候選；公元前500年是波斯的波斯波利斯；公元1年是羅馬；公元500年左右或許是中國的長安；公元1000年是中國的開封；公元1500年大概率是意大利的佛羅倫薩；公元2000年是紐約；而到公元2500年，上述城市可能都已不在其列。</p><p class="ql-block">如今的開封骯臟貧窮，連省會都不是，地位卑微到甚至沒有機場。它的衰敗更凸顯了時運的變遷。11世紀，作為中國北宋的都城，開封人口超百萬，而當時倫敦的人口僅約1.5萬。</p><p class="ql-block">北京故宮博物院珍藏著一幅17英尺長的古畫卷，生動展現(xiàn)了古代開封的繁華喧囂：街上行人摩肩接踵，駱駝馱著絲綢之路的商品往來不息，茶館酒樓生意興隆。</p><p class="ql-block">開封的地位曾吸引著世界各地的人們，包括數(shù)百名猶太人。即便如今，開封仍有一些外貌與普通中國人無異、卻自認猶太人且忌食豬肉的居民。</p><p class="ql-block">我在開封一帶走訪時，詢問當?shù)厝藶楹芜@座國際中心會衰落至此，不少人流露出對紐約的羨慕。有位男士說，他正打算花2.5萬美元請黑幫幫忙，非法偷渡到美國。但更多當?shù)厝藞孕?，中國正踏上復興之路，終將重拾世界領導者的歷史地位。</p><p class="ql-block">“中國現(xiàn)在發(fā)展得越來越好，”城郊年輕農(nóng)婦王瑞娜（音譯）說，“再給我們幾十年，就能趕上美國，甚至超過它?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block">她所言非虛。美國占據(jù)全球最大經(jīng)濟體的地位已逾一個世紀，但多數(shù)預測顯示，按購買力平價計算，中國將在約15年內(nèi)超越美國。</p><p class="ql-block">那么，紐約能從開封這樣的城市中學到什么？</p><p class="ql-block">其一，保持技術優(yōu)勢和穩(wěn)健經(jīng)濟政策至關重要。古代中國的繁榮，部分源于支持增長、促進貿(mào)易的政策，以及曲轅犁、印刷術、紙幣等技術革新。但后來中國輕視商貿(mào)，人均收入陷入了600年的停滯。</p><p class="ql-block">其二，傲慢自大是致命隱患。中國曾認為無需向他國學習——而這正是衰敗的開端。</p><p class="ql-block">這兩點都讓我為美國感到擔憂。我們的經(jīng)濟管理松散，無力解決農(nóng)業(yè)補貼或長期預算赤字問題；技術雖強，但美國公立學校的數(shù)學和科學教育僅處于二流水平；美國人對世界缺乏興趣，反觀中國，那份躁動、干勁與決心正再次將其推向世界前沿。</p><p class="ql-block">在黃河邊，我遇到了70歲的農(nóng)民王浩（音譯），他從未上過一天學，甚至不會寫自己的名字——但他的后代已然不同?！拔业膬蓚€孫子現(xiàn)在都上了大學，”他自豪地說，接著聊起了家里的電腦。</p><p class="ql-block">想到開封，我們應奮發(fā)圖強，提升高科技優(yōu)勢、教育實力和促增長政策。因為若我們固步自封、安于現(xiàn)狀，即便如紐約這般偉大的城市，最終也可能淪為“哈得孫河畔的開封”。</p>