<p class="ql-block"><b style="font-size:20px;">All 4 Iran war assumptions dead wrong — Trump proves experts got fooled again</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b style="font-size:20px;">所有四項(xiàng)關(guān)于伊朗戰(zhàn)爭的假設(shè)都大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)——特朗普再次證明專家們被愚弄了</b></p><p class="ql-block">Operation Epic Fury reveals how Washington assumptions about Middle East conflicts don't match battlefield realities</p><p class="ql-block">“史詩狂怒行動(dòng)”揭示了華盛頓對中東沖突的假設(shè)與戰(zhàn)場現(xiàn)實(shí)的不符之處。</p><p class="ql-block"><b style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128);">By Victoria Coates </b></p><p class="ql-block"><b style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128);">作者:維多利亞 ·科茨 </b></p><p class="ql-block"><b style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128);">Published March 9, 2026 </b></p> <p class="ql-block">In these early days of Operation Epic Fury, while much remains unknown, one thing has become clear: how little the conventional wisdom about foreign policy in Washington, D.C., has to do with the realities taking shape on the battlefield. Traditionally, four things were assumed to be near inevitable if the United States and/or Israel were to take significant military action against Iran:</p><p class="ql-block">在“史詩狂怒行動(dòng)”初期，盡管諸多未知因素依然存在，但有一點(diǎn)已然明朗：華盛頓特區(qū)關(guān)于外交政策的傳統(tǒng)智慧與戰(zhàn)場上正在形成的現(xiàn)實(shí)幾乎毫無關(guān)聯(lián)。傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，如果美國和/或以色列對伊朗采取重大軍事行動(dòng)，以下四件事幾乎不可避免：</p><p class="ql-block"> <b>1 Iran’s supreme leader would be untouchable.</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 伊朗最高領(lǐng)袖將無人敢動(dòng)。</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 2 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would deploy its terrorist proxies to ignite a regional war.</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 伊斯蘭革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)將部署其恐怖代理人，以挑起地區(qū)戰(zhàn)爭。</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 3 Israel would be isolated in the Middle East and vulnerable to attack from Arab neighbors.</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 以色列將在中東陷入孤立，并容易受到阿拉伯鄰國的攻擊。</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 4 The United States would be isolated on the world stage and limited in what it could do to support Israel, which would benefit Russia and China.</b></p><p class="ql-block"><b> 美國將在世界舞臺(tái)上被孤立，其對以色列的支持也將受到限制，這將有利于俄羅斯和中國。</b></p><p class="ql-block">All four assumptions are dead wrong.</p><p class="ql-block">這四個(gè)假設(shè)都完全錯(cuò)誤。</p> <p class="ql-block" style="text-align:center;"><span style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128); font-size:15px;">被美以軍事行動(dòng)摧毀的伊朗警察局廢墟</span></p> <p class="ql-block">Obviously, the supreme leader was not untouchable. He was eliminated in one of the opening strikes of the mission, along with much of Iran’s senior leadership. His arrogant foolishness in gathering that leadership together was in fact the opportunity that prompted Epic Fury in the first place.</p><p class="ql-block">顯然，最高領(lǐng)袖并非不可觸碰。在行動(dòng)的首次打擊中，他連同伊朗的大部分高級領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人一起被消滅。事實(shí)上，正是他傲慢愚蠢地召集這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，才促成了“史詩狂怒”行動(dòng)的發(fā)生。</p> <p class="ql-block">But that did not prevent the survivors from organizing a succession meeting on Tuesday, March 3, which was in turn targeted. The demoralized remnants of the regime are now attempting to re-establish command and control with little in terms of structure or internal communications.</p><p class="ql-block">但這并未阻止幸存者們在 3 月 3 日星期二組織一次權(quán)力交接會(huì)議 ，而這次會(huì)議也成為了襲擊目標(biāo)。如今，士氣低落的政權(quán)殘余勢力正試圖在組織架構(gòu)和內(nèi)部溝通都十分薄弱的情況下重建指揮控制。</p> <p class="ql-block">In addition, the predicted mass regional attack on Israel has not materialized. Because of Iran’s disastrous decision to launch missiles against its neighbors — even those who had been acting as its mediators, such as Qatar and Oman — the region has unified not against Israel, but against Iran.</p><p class="ql-block">此外，此前預(yù)測的針對以色列的大規(guī)模區(qū)域性襲擊并未發(fā)生。由于伊朗做出了向鄰國（甚至包括曾充當(dāng)其調(diào)解人的卡塔爾和阿曼）發(fā)射導(dǎo)彈的災(zāi)難性決定 ，該地區(qū)團(tuán)結(jié)起來對抗的不是以色列，而是伊朗。</p><p class="ql-block">There are even reports of Arab nations potentially participating in the strikes on Iran. The Abraham Accords, although under strain since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, have held.</p><p class="ql-block">甚至有報(bào)道稱，阿拉伯國家可能參與對伊朗的打擊行動(dòng)。盡管自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈馬斯襲擊以色列以來，《亞伯拉罕協(xié)議》一直處于緊張狀態(tài)，但目前仍維持著。</p> <p class="ql-block">Iran’s terrorist proxies, rather than rising up to attack Israel, have been remarkably inactive given their patron’s desperate straits. Hamas in Gaza has been all but silent. Hezbollah in Lebanon have fired some rockets, but nothing like the overwhelming barrage of precision-guided missiles that was once feared. The Houthi in Yemen have stuck to threats rather than attacks. None of them appear to be interested in a multi-front war against the combined might the U.S. and Israel have demonstrated.</p><p class="ql-block">鑒于伊朗的庇護(hù)者處境艱難，其恐怖主義代理人非但沒有起來攻擊以色列，反而出奇地不活躍。加沙的哈馬斯幾乎保持沉默。黎巴嫩真主黨發(fā)射了一些火箭彈，但遠(yuǎn)不及人們曾經(jīng)擔(dān)憂的那種鋪天蓋地的精確制導(dǎo)導(dǎo)彈。也門胡塞武裝則堅(jiān)持發(fā)出威脅，而非發(fā)動(dòng)攻擊。他們似乎都不愿與美國和以色列聯(lián)手，打一場多線作戰(zhàn)。</p> <p class="ql-block">While it is true that Russian President Vladimir Putin has put out strong statements condemning the American action, they have actually done precious little to support their supposed ally Iran, which is reportedly registering complaints about the quality of the missile-defense systems they supplied.</p><p class="ql-block">雖然俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾·普京確實(shí)發(fā)表了強(qiáng)烈聲明譴責(zé)美國的行動(dòng)，但實(shí)際上他們幾乎沒有采取任何措施來支持他們所謂的盟友伊朗，據(jù)報(bào)道，伊朗正在對他們提供的導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)的質(zhì)量提出抱怨。</p> <p class="ql-block">And America, rather than being isolated, is re-established as the pre-eminent military power on the planet, while Russia and Qhina hardly look like reliable partners. Even our originally timorous European allies have come around to supporting the mission.</p><p class="ql-block">美國非但沒有被孤立，反而重新確立了其全球首屈一指的軍事強(qiáng)國地位，而俄羅斯和Q國則幾乎不再是可靠的伙伴。就連我們原本膽怯的歐洲盟友也開始支持這項(xiàng)任務(wù)。</p> <p class="ql-block">Of course, this is a real war, and no one is claiming it will be neat or simple. It’s a difficult mission that has already and will continue to cost American lives and treasure to successfully prosecute. But there’s no denying it is very different from what the so-called "experts" have predicted for the last 47 years.</p><p class="ql-block">當(dāng)然，這是一場真正的戰(zhàn)爭，沒人會(huì)說它會(huì)輕松簡單。這是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)，為了成功完成，美國已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)付出生命和財(cái)富的代價(jià)。但不可否認(rèn)的是，它與過去47年來所謂的“專家”們的預(yù)測截然不同。</p><p class="ql-block">So, while success is far from guaranteed, this new reality presents several opportunities as well as risks, and should prompt a reassessment of other assumptions that have constrained American action against Iran for so long.</p><p class="ql-block">因此，雖然成功遠(yuǎn)未得到保證，但這種新的現(xiàn)實(shí)帶來了一些機(jī)遇和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并應(yīng)促使人們重新評估長期以來限制美國對伊朗采取行動(dòng)的其他假設(shè)。</p> <p class="ql-block">President Donald Trump has a history of doing things in the Middle East that had been declared impossible. Experts knew that moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem would cause a massive regional attack on Israel. Eliminating Qasam Soleimani would ignite a regional war. Additional regional normalization between Israel and regional neighbors could not be reached until there was a two-state solution with the Palestinians.</p><p class="ql-block">唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)在中東地區(qū)屢屢做出被認(rèn)為不可能的事情。專家們早就知道，將美國大使館從特拉維夫遷至耶路撒冷會(huì)引發(fā)針對以色列的大規(guī)模區(qū)域性襲擊。除掉卡薩姆·蘇萊曼尼則會(huì)點(diǎn)燃一場區(qū)域戰(zhàn)爭。在與巴勒斯坦達(dá)成兩國方案之前，以色列與周邊鄰國之間不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步的區(qū)域關(guān)系正?；?lt;/p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">See what I mean? 你明白我的意思嗎？</p> <p class="ql-block"><span style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128); font-size:15px;">People who support the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, rally near the White House, Saturday Feb. 28, 2026, in Washington. (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)</span></p><p class="ql-block"><span style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128); font-size:15px;">2026 年 2 月 28 日星期六，在華盛頓白宮附近，支持美國和以色列對伊朗發(fā)動(dòng)空襲的人們舉行集會(huì)。</span></p> <p class="ql-block">Another piece of conventional wisdom Trump seems poised to disprove is the so-called "Pottery Barn Rule" for regime change — "you break it, you buy it." This dictate that the U.S. had to rebuild a hostile country once its government was removed — even if that government had supported a vicious attack on our own soil — led to catastrophic mission creep in Afghanistan and Iraq as, after the success of those military campaigns, attempts to remake those countries dragged on for decades and ended in failure.</p><p class="ql-block">特朗普似乎準(zhǔn)備推翻的另一條傳統(tǒng)觀念是所謂的政權(quán)更迭“陶器谷倉法則”——“你破壞了它，你就得買單”。這條法則規(guī)定，一旦一個(gè)敵對國家的政府被推翻，美國就必須重建該國 ——即便該政府曾支持對美國本土發(fā)動(dòng)殘酷的襲擊——這導(dǎo)致了阿富汗和伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭中災(zāi)難性的軍事行動(dòng)蔓延。在這些軍事行動(dòng)取得成功之后，重建這些國家的嘗試卻拖延了數(shù)十年，最終以失敗告終。</p> <p class="ql-block">America should not repeat this error. Presumably, Trump will want to bring the kinetic phase of this mission to a close as soon as his objectives are achieved. Then we will see if the Iranian people will take advantage of the best opportunity they have had since the revolution to reclaim their government.</p><p class="ql-block">美國不應(yīng)重蹈覆轍。想必特朗普會(huì)在達(dá)成目標(biāo)后盡快結(jié)束此次行動(dòng)的軍事階段。屆時(shí)，我們將拭目以待，看看伊朗人民是否會(huì)抓住自革命以來最好的機(jī)會(huì)，奪回政權(quán)。</p> <p class="ql-block">Iran is, after all, a country, not a piece of crockery in a store, and President Trump’s mission is not nation-building. It is to give the American people the opportunity to go through the next half-century freed from the deadly threat of the Islamic Republic, especially if that regime were to acquire a nuclear weapon.</p><p class="ql-block">畢竟，伊朗是一個(gè)國家，而不是商店里的一件瓷器，特朗普總統(tǒng)的使命也不是國家建設(shè)。他的目標(biāo)是讓美國人民有機(jī)會(huì)在未來半個(gè)世紀(jì)里免受伊斯蘭共和國的致命威脅 ，尤其是在該政權(quán)可能獲得核武器的情況下。</p><p class="ql-block">It would be even better to go through that period with a prosperous and secure partner in what the new Iran becomes. And that future will ultimately be for the people of Iran to secure.</p><p class="ql-block">如果能與一個(gè)繁榮穩(wěn)定的伙伴攜手共渡這段時(shí)期，共同建設(shè)新伊朗，那就更好了。而伊朗的未來最終將由伊朗人民自己去保障。</p> <p class="ql-block"><i style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128);">Victoria Coates is Vice President of Heritage’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy.</i></p><p class="ql-block"><i style="color:rgb(128, 128, 128);">維多利亞·科茨是傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)凱瑟琳和謝爾比·卡洛姆·戴維斯國家安全與外交政策研究所的副總裁。</i></p>